US intelligence warns of risks in permitting Ukraine’s long-range strikes, NYT reports

U.S. intelligence agencies have cautioned that Russia may respond with increased force, potentially including lethal attacks on the U.S. and its allies, if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles supplied by the U.S., U.K., and France for strikes deep into Russian territory, the New York Times reported.
The news outlet cited a previously unreported assessment that also downplays the strategic impact these long-range missiles might have on the war, mentioning Ukraine’s limited supply and the uncertainty over how many more Western nations may provide those missiles.
The analysis underscores the significant risks and uncertain benefits of the decision, which now lies with President Joe Biden, following his meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Sept. 26.
The difficulty in President Biden’s decision-making on Ukraine’s request for long-range missiles is partly rooted in concerns highlighted by U.S. intelligence, American officials told the New York Times. Zelensky has been pushing both publicly and privately to gain permission to target Russian territory with the advanced missiles.
Vladimir Putin has regularly used threats to deter the U.S. and its allies from sending more sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine. Critics argue that Biden’s administration has been overly cautious, claiming their slow, incremental approach to arming Ukraine has hurt their performance on the battlefield. On the other hand, supporters of the current strategy point to its effectiveness in avoiding major Russian retaliation, though they admit this balance may now be at risk.
The intelligence assessment outlines a range of potential Russian reactions if the U.S. and European nations authorize Ukraine to carry out long-range strikes with their supplied missiles. These responses could include increased acts of sabotage and arson targeting infrastructure across Europe, and even potentially lethal attacks on military installations belonging to the U.S. and its allies.
According to U.S. officials, most of the sabotage in Europe so far has been orchestrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU). If Putin opts to escalate this covert campaign in response to missile strikes deep inside Russian territory, officials believe the Kremlin would likely continue to operate in the shadows, avoiding direct and open attacks on U.S. and European military facilities to prevent triggering a broader conflict.